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byHoratio/Tools/08 · Margin leak

What does pricing from memory cost you? A number that has never existed.

Nobody searches for this, and it is the most valuable calculator on the site. When prices live in someone's head or a spreadsheet, what a customer is charged depends on who answered the phone and what they remembered — and a supplier rise reaches the customer weeks after it reached you. This puts a figure on both, in pounds and in points of margin.

Tool08 · Margin leak
InputsTen, mostly from your sales figures
OutputProfit lost a year, and points of margin
Proven inCase study 004 — 5% to 17.6%
CostFree · nothing stored
Won revenue quotes × win rate × valueUnderpriced share the ones that came in lowHow low typically 5–10%Price-rise lag weeks before every quote followsLeak straight off the bottom lineAs margin points, not pounds Won revenue quotes × win rate × valueUnderpriced share the ones that came in lowHow low typically 5–10%Price-rise lag weeks before every quote followsLeak straight off the bottom lineAs margin points, not pounds

Across ten thousand product lines, no salesperson can hold the prices. So what a customer is charged depends on who picked up the phone, what they remembered, and how badly they wanted to close — and when a supplier puts prices up, the rise reaches the customer weeks after it reached you. Neither shows on a timesheet. Both come straight off the bottom line. This is the number.

Margin leak, a year

Your pricing · ten numbers

Your sales
%
£
%
Underpricing
%
%
%
Price-rise lag
%

The margin leak · every year

—a year of profit lost to inconsistent pricing — straight off the bottom line
Won revenue a year
Gross profit on it
Revenue priced from memory
of which underpriced
Underpricing leak
Weeks a year quoting at stale costs
Price-rise lag leak
Total leak
as a share of gross profit
as points of margin
Profit lost to inconsistent pricing, a year
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Pre-filled with the sales volumes from case study 004. The underpricing share and shortfall are estimates until you audit a sample of your own quotes against your price book. Nothing you type is stored.

What the number means

  • Won revenue is quotes times win rate times value. At the nursery's volumes, about £1.02m a year, with £205k of gross profit on it.
  • Underpricing: if all quotes are memory-priced and one in five comes in 8% under, that is £16,400 of profit gone.
  • Price-rise lag: two 5% supplier rises a year, each taking six weeks to reach every quote, is twelve weeks of quoting at stale costs — another £11,800.
  • Total about £28,200 a year, 2.75 points of margin. Once every line was on the website at its price, the nursery went from 5% to 17.6%.

How is margin leak calculated?

Two leaks, separately, because they have different causes and the same fix. The first is underpricing. Take the revenue you win, the share of it that was priced from memory or a spreadsheet rather than from one central book, the share of those quotes that came in under the right price, and how far under they typically were. Multiply through and that is profit you never invoiced. Nobody notices it because the job still looked profitable — it was just less profitable than the same job quoted by the salesperson who remembered.

The second is lag. When a supplier rises, there is a period between the rise reaching the business and the rise reaching every quote — the time it takes to update the spreadsheet, reprint the list, tell everyone, and for everyone to actually use it. During those weeks every quote is priced at the old cost and won at the old margin. Rises a year times weeks of lag is the number of weeks a year you are quoting at stale costs; times the size of the rise, on the revenue you win, is the leak.

The tool then expresses the total as points of margin, because that is the unit that makes it real: a business at 5% margin losing 2.75 points to pricing is not a business with a pricing problem, it is a business whose pricing problem is most of its profit.

Why is one price book the whole fix?

In the wholesale nursery the unlock was not software. It was advice: put every product line on the website, with its price. Once the whole catalogue existed in one place and was priced, it stopped being a shop window and became the rule the quoting system follows. A salesperson could not underprice, because the number came from the catalogue and not from a judgement made under pressure with a customer waiting. A supplier rise reached every quote the moment it reached the website, instead of waiting to reach every salesperson's memory.

That is where the margin moved. One price list applied the same way by everyone is the difference between 5% and 17.6% far more than any single price rise is — and the same is true in the fencing business, where 57 items and 29 rules replaced a printed list in each van.

5% → 17.6%margin at the nursery, with the same three people in the office — once nobody could quote from memory.

A worked example

2,730 quotes a year, a 25% win rate and a £1,500 average: £1,023,750 won, with £204,750 of gross profit at 20%. Every quote memory-priced, one in five under by 8%: £204,750 of revenue underpriced, and £16,380 of profit gone. Two supplier rises of 5%, each six weeks reaching every quote: twelve weeks a year at stale costs, £11,812. Total about £28,200 — 13.8% of gross profit, 2.75 points of margin.

What does the number leave out?

  • Overpricing. Memory pricing also loses jobs by quoting too high on a day the salesperson felt cautious. Lost revenue rather than lost margin, and not counted here.
  • Discounting under pressure. A price given from memory is easier to knock down than one on a screen. Real, unmeasured, excluded.
  • The time. Quoting from memory across thousands of lines is slow; the cost of standing still has the hours.
  • Training. A new salesperson quoting from a catalogue is useful in an afternoon. One quoting from memory takes seasons, and underprices the whole way.

What do you do with the number?

Audit fifty recent quotes against what the price book says they should have been. It takes an afternoon and it replaces the two estimates in this tool with facts — and it is almost always worse than the owner expects. Then put every price in one place that every quoter quotes from, so a rise entered once reaches every quote from that moment. That is the first thing the operations audit looks at in any business that quotes, and the other calculators cover the hours and the hire beside it. The short version of the method is on the byHoratio homepage.

Questions people ask about margin leak

What is margin leak?

Profit that is earned in principle and never invoiced in practice. In pricing it comes from two places: quotes that come in under the right price because they were priced from memory or an out-of-date spreadsheet, and quotes issued at old costs during the weeks between a supplier rise reaching the business and reaching every quote. Both come straight off the bottom line, which is why the tool expresses the total as points of margin rather than only pounds.

How do I know what share of my quotes are underpriced?

Audit a sample. Pull fifty recent quotes and check each line against what your price book or current supplier costs say it should have been. Count the ones that were under and average how far under. Fifty is usually enough to settle it, and the result replaces the two estimates in the calculator with your own figures. Most owners find the share is higher than they guessed and the shortfall is smaller — which still adds up.

Why does a price rise take weeks to reach my quotes?

Because the rise has to travel from the supplier's email to your spreadsheet, from the spreadsheet to a printed list or a message to the team, and from there into each salesperson's habit. Every quote issued in that window is at the old cost. With one central price book the rise is entered once and every quote from that moment follows — the lag becomes zero and the leak with it.

Does this apply if I am the only person who quotes?

Less, but not nothing. One person quoting from memory is consistent with themselves, so the underpricing leak is smaller — but the lag leak is the same, and the moment you hire a second quoter the underpricing leak appears in full. The nursery in case study 004 had three salespeople and ten thousand lines; nobody could hold that.

Is 17.6 per cent a realistic margin for a wholesale nursery?

It is the figure that business reached over two years, from a near-break-even 5 per cent, with the office unchanged at three people. Pricing consistency was the largest single contributor, but not the only one — the same period rebuilt quoting, order management and dispatch. Treat it as what one business did rather than a benchmark.

—One next step

Which of your salespeople is the cheapest?

If the answer depends on who picked up the phone, that is the leak. One price book, applied by everyone, closes it. Twenty minutes, no deck, no pitch.

HORATIO@BYHORATIO.COM

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